Looking Back and Forward: The Collectible Watch Market 2022-2024

The idea for this article emerged gradually as we tried to explain to our clients our perception of the market's evolution since 2022, which hasn't been a straight line, and has caused quite a stir among watchmaking aficionados. By "market," to be precise, we refer to the second-hand and collectible watch market, as distinct from the new watch market.

We do not claim to be able to rationalize all the elements since 2022, nor to synthesize them all, but we can identify some trends, provide our explanations, and propose our vision for the coming months. We hope this article will enlighten you and we remain open to your comments in a spirit of sharing and exchange.

Therefore, this article aims to cover three distinct periods:
- An euphoric year 2022
- A cautious year 2023
- 2024 with new visibility to other brands

Collectible Watches, a market in its own right

Having discussed this topic with many of you in private, our stance is not to provide you with only a cold and analytical view of the watch market because we are well aware that we are addressing enthusiasts first and foremost. And as you have understood, we are enthusiasts too!

However, the watch market is like any other market, particularly expensive, and we believe it's important to approach it with a great deal of clarity. We will not renounce our beliefs; pre-owned and collectible watches are an investment. While it's dangerous to overlook the concept of investment (a reasoned one), it's even more so not to fully incorporate the concept of pleasure into our reasoning! In other words, our recommendation is to indulge with your eyes wide open to the realities of a market that is becoming increasingly specialized.

To return to our retrospective topic, if we go back a bit further in time, to 2017 for example, we can only recall two very strong trends: on one hand, a steady and sustained increase in prices from 2017 to 2022, and on the other, a refocusing of the market around the trio of Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek. We have devoted a few articles to this subject (on the surge in Nautilus prices, on Vintage Daytonas), and we regretted that some particularly deserving brands with rich histories were so little considered.

So we approached 2022, the starting point of our retrospective, with a dynamic and highly concentrated market...

2022: A Year of Euphoria

The year 2022 started off with a bang, with secondary market prices soaring, especially for brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek, for "nearly new," second-hand, and by a ripple effect, for collectibles as well.

The Nautilus as a Symbol of Soaring Prices

Among the anecdotes that help to understand the overall phenomenon, we can mention the price of a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712, which in stores, for the lucky few, was close to 50,000 euros but sold in March 2022 for up to 150,000 euros, and sometimes more... regardless of the watch's year, whether recent or from 2007! In this specific case, it would be more appropriate to talk about speculation rather than investment!

Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712

It's quite delicate to estimate the number of 5712 pieces produced since 2006/2007 (the first years of the model's production), but we could venture an estimate of around 1,500 pieces per year, potentially more than 20,000 pieces in circulation. While this is a relatively limited production (no doubt compared to Rolex's production for a Daytona 116500, for example), it's far from F.P. Journe's annual total production, which does not exceed 1,000 pieces for all models combined!

Therefore, it seems utterly inexplicable that prices for certain models such as a 5712 have skyrocketed to this extent, unless considering a suddenly extremely high demand (thus of a new kind driven by new aspirations and needs).

Nautilus 3700	Nautilus 3712	Nautilus 5726	Nautilus 5990

Some explanations, often converging, have mentioned a flood of liquidity in the market, notably with cryptocurrencies, and a desire for a new category of clients to "convert" the intangible and virtual into "tangible assets," namely "standardized" watches, which are easier to grasp than collectible (or vintage) watches that remain unique and thus much less easy (more technical) to negotiate. It would thus have been a transfer of "virtual" liquidity to tangible assets convertible into more conventional liquidity... This explanation, both plausible and partially verifiable, has added to a more generalized euphoria... The (latent!) capital gains quickly attracted all sorts of investors, more or less keen on horology.

At the risk of shocking some of you, a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712 remains a modern Nautilus, once the overall condition is assessed, nothing is more comparable to a 5712 than another 5712... However, a collectible watch from the 1970s remains unique, which may explain why we have not observed as significant an increase, all proportions considered, in the collectible market.

Audemars Piguet and the 50th Anniversary of the Royal Oak

The first part of 2022 was marked by a significant increase in the volume of watches sold, and a very significant increase in the price of modern, neo-vintage, and to a lesser extent, collectible watches, except for Audemars Piguet which benefited from a very appreciable factor, the fiftieth anniversary of the Royal Oak in 2022.

It can be quite easily argued that the brand itself was particularly instrumental in the price increase of the Royal Oaks, whether modern or vintage... Notably, 2022 saw a very spectacular increase in all historic Royal Oaks, whether the 5402 series A, B, C, or D, the jubilee, 15002, or even the perpetual calendars, references 5554ST, 26554ST, or 26554BA, not to mention the precious rare dials (set, "Klein", in unique materials...).

Triptych of 5402, from left to right: 5402ST, 5402SA, 5402BA

Auction houses, led by the flamboyant Aurel Bacs of Phillips, or Christie's, have particularly contributed to maintaining the price increase, especially for Audemars Piguet in the first part of 2022. We covered the Geneva auctions in May 2022.

Another phenomenon observed in 2022 is the "renaissance" of the Vacheron Constantin brand, which reissued its iconic 222 in March, launched in 1977 for the 222nd anniversary of the House. The Overseas range, updated to contemporary tastes, followed the price appreciation known by the leading trio... perhaps also because these brands were becoming increasingly inaccessible. We, for our part, celebrated this expansion of the offer and the return to the forefront of a legendary brand that has marked the history of watchmaking!

The second part of 2022 was much more hesitant, with a very pronounced decline in volume... The bidding frenzy quickly disappeared, and the expectations of selling clients remained for several months too high for the reality of demand.

A very striking phenomenon was observed on the Chrono24 platform, where the most standardized products (Nautilus 5711, 5712, 5980, 5990..., Royal Oak 15450, 15202, 26331, Rolex 116500, 116508, 116509, 126710, 116610...) appeared in increasing numbers for sale with a very significant price disparity, between optimistic requests, more realistic ones, and those justified by urgent cash needs. It goes without saying that in a context of increasingly limited liquidity, only urgent cash needs were met, leading to sometimes substantial losses, especially for those who entered the market in the same year.

We will not enter into the controversy over the effectiveness of the tools provided by Chrono24. We will just note that the disparity of the offer on Chrono24 in 2022 for the same reference meant that the "average" prices provided by the platform no longer reflected the "transactional" reality of the market. In other words, the "true" reference price on the platforms was often, at least by the end of 2022, the lowest price!

Illustration from the website Chrono24 for a Rolex 116500LN

2023: A Year of Uncertainty and Hesitation

The year 2023 was marked by many expectations, such as the 60th anniversary of the Daytona (1963-2023), and the repercussions it could have on the market, uncertainties and questions surrounding the departure of the very charismatic Francois-Henry Bennhamias, the flamboyant CEO of Audemars Piguet, and generally, by questions about market directions following the previous year's euphoria.

The first part of 2023 saw a clear slowdown in sales volume, followed by a sharp decline in prices, recorded by merchants and also by auction houses, which began to register mixed results... While the most prestigious houses still manage to display "scores" for some very rare pieces, the trend is becoming clearer, and buyers are becoming more cautious.

This last comment can be tempered by a mitigating factor, that of the relative increase in 2023 of quality vintage watches, which naturally become a safe haven... This phenomenon is quite natural, and savvy collectors remember that the productions of the 60s, 70s, and 80s were much more limited, and considering the natural attrition of collectible watches over time, the analysis is quickly done. There are theoretically as many Rolex 6263s and 6265s in circulation today as there are Nautilus 5712s, however, if we exclude vintage watches that are deteriorated and not up to standard, the rarity of vintage watches becomes more evident and reinforces the notion of a safe haven.

The 60th anniversary of the Daytona did not generate the expected results, especially with the auction houses that failed to create commemorative events as significant as for the Royal Oak the previous year. However, Rolex surprised the market with the launch of a mythical model, produced for only one year, the Daytona 126529LN 100 years of the 24 Hours of Le Mans with its dial reminiscent of the exotic dials aka "Paul Newman".

Illustration of the 126529LN marketed by 41Watch

The second part of 2023 initiated a real phase of rationalization, with a recovery in volumes at the expense of price levels, which have decreased. A rather trivial analysis of price levels for modern watches indicates that for the second part of 2023, price levels have returned to those of late 2020 and early 2021, thus erasing the sustained growth of 2021 and the frantic pace of 2022! In other words, it took the market about 9 months (the last quarter of 2022 and the first two quarters of 2023) to acknowledge the price drop and return to more normal volume levels. With a bit of hindsight, Patek's Nautilus watches are now trading at only 1.5 to 2 times the retail price, rather than 3 to 4 times! This does not seem entirely unreasonable; on the contrary, one could argue that the market has regained its sense!

On the Audemars Piguet side, François-Henry Bennahmias has graced us with an impressive number of launches of ever more exceptional and exclusive models, including the Royal Oak Grande Complications (perpetual calendars skeletons in precious alloy, ceramic, minute repeaters, tourbillon), the Royal Oak special and limited series (Domaine de Murtoli, Alyx,...). While these models are absolutely exceptional, it remains to be seen whether there is sufficient customer depth to absorb this quite impressive number of special and limited series... To be continued.

2024: Modern or Collectible Watches?

At the start of February, we can only hypothesize about market directions. What we observe, being an integral part of the market's workings ourselves, is that price levels for watches have been assimilated by most actors and protagonists, so much so that we are beginning to see a form of liquidity return, with a few exceptions, particularly for atypical pieces that struggle to "settle on a price".

As for the vast majority of the market, transactions follow each other and "normalize" (meaning there is real consistency in the prices charged for the same reference). There is still a dynamic vintage market, with a strong leaning towards extremely high-quality pieces, which is symptomatic of this kind of period. In all transparency, there is also a form of skepticism in the vintage market towards the most niche pieces (collectors probably wondering where prices are supposed to land) while the most iconic pieces record sustained scores when quality is present.

We are pleased, for our part, about the broadening of the market to brands that had been in decline in recent years, notably Piaget and Cartier, which are making a comeback both in the vintage, neo-vintage, and even modern sectors with new models that are both affordable and rich in history.

The market is particularly rationalizing on pieces that offer more intrinsic value (in precious metal or with beautiful complications, for example), as opposed to sports watches in steel that have made headlines in recent years and whose price spheres were difficult to justify. We are now in a buyer's market full of opportunities with intelligent exchanges to consider.

We are seeing a rise in prices for Day-Date, especially examples with rare dials which sell quickly (e.g., stone) sell very quickly. Dress watches like perpetual calendars or even Patek Philippe's world time watches constitute a reasoned investment and are increasingly coveted (long-awaited and deserved) by collectors today. Brands with artisanal and confidential production like F.P. Journe or MB&F are strengthening their position with a consistently dynamic market for rare watches.

2024 thus promises to be a good year, one of a return to normalcy and pragmatism. We look forward to accompanying you throughout this year to help you realize your horological projects, whether it be selling, buying, or exchanging.

We are at your disposal to exchange our viewpoints and provide answers to any questions you may have.

By Cyril, co-founder of 41Watch (@Cyril_41Watch)